Sunday, ANZ Stadium, 5.15pm Referee: Tony Archer

The bookmakers have put Manly up as favourites, and I agree with them. The Sea Eagles should win, but it will be a tremendous contest, and if they are even slightly off their game they risk going home as losers for the second year in a row. Melbourne are at home in grand finals. It is the third in a row that they will have played. After being off their game a bit and losing to Brisbane in 2006, they learned from that and came out last year to thrash the Sea Eagles. But, now, the Sea Eagles are in a position to have learned. This should be their time, even if there isn't a lot between the two teams.

Manly have the most dominant team of the finals series, winning their two games by a collective 70 points to 12 against St George Illawarra and the Warriors. Melbourne have done it tougher, losing to the Warriors before beating Brisbane with a last-minute try and finally shutting out Cronulla. You could suggest the Storm got out of jail against the Broncos, but it is just as good an argument to say they showed their championship qualities by hanging in there and playing right until the end. The bottom line is that Melbourne won't be going away in this match.

Looking for the difference, Manly were the most impressive winners last weekend. They controlled the ball very well and defended even better. The Warriors could not find a way through them. The Storm beat the Sharks just as easily on the scoreboard, but the Sharks contributed heavily to their own demise by constantly turning over the ball. Manly, if they hold their form, won't give the Storm easy ball. The absence of hooker Cameron Smith and second-rower Ryan Hoffman is obviously a big blow to the Storm. Manly look to be going a bit better than Melbourne, and should win.

Sea Eagles: Brett Stewart, Michael Robertson, Steve Bell, Steve Matai, David Williams, Jamie Lyon, Matt Orford (capt), Brent Kite, Matt Ballin, Josh Perry, Anthony Watmough, Glenn Hall, Glenn Stewart. Interchange: Heath L'Estrange, Mark Bryant, Jason King, Steve Menzies, Adam Cuthbertson, Luke Williamson (two to be omitted)

Storm: Billy Slater, Steve Turner, Matt Geyer, Israel Folau, Anthony Quinn, Greg Inglis, Cooper Cronk, Jeff Lima, Russell Aitken, Brett White, Jeremy Smith, Michael Crocker, Dallas Johnson. Interchange: Antonio Kaufusi, Scott Anderson, Adam Blair, Sika Manu, Aiden Tolman, Brett Anderson (two to be omitted).